The Impact of Trump’s Election on The Middle East

The landslide election of Donald Trump’s holds out real promise of encouraging peace in the Middle East. Unlike President Biden, who demanded caution from Israel in exchange for providing arms, Trump seems to be sending a message that he will support Israel’s policy of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if that requires military action. He will also reimpose painful sanctions on Iran if it continues its march toward a nuclear arsenal.

Hopefully these threats alone will deter Iran in a way that the Biden administration was unable to do. 

In the end, the only sure path to peace in the Middle East is regime change in Iran and dismantling its terrorist proxies. If anyone can accomplish this difficult goal, it would be President Trump. The vast majority of Iranians despise the mullahs and would welcome some form of democracy. Most Iranians are pro-American, and many are even pro-Israel. But they have no say in the policies of the government, and especially the Revolutionary Guard.

The Obama administration missed a golden opportunity to support regime change when Iranians took to the streets against the mullahs. If Trump reimposes crippling sanctions on Iran, internal revolt may be encouraged.

Even if regime change does not occur, the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities would weaken the regime considerably. Coupled with the destruction of the military capabilities of Hamas, Hizbullah and the Houthis, Iran will be seen as a paper tiger. This will encourage Saudi Arabia to continue along the road to making full peace with Israel, thereby expanding the Abraham Accords. 

An Israel at peace with its neighbors and not consistently threatened by them would be an Israel more open to a solution of the Palestinian issue. Such a solution would begin with fewer Jewish settlements on the West Bank, more autonomy for peaceful areas of the West Bank, and a new governing authority in Gaza. These changes will all take time. The Palestinians will have to earn their right to a full state, by building peaceful institutions and controlling terrorist elements under their authority.

These are all daunting tasks, but the Trump administration is in a better position to encourage them than were prior administrations. The Democrats are burdened by an anti-Israel wing, including but not limited to the Squad. These extremists discourage Israel from making any compromises that might weaken their security. Full-fledged support from the Trump Republican administration will strengthen the Israeli peace camp and weaken those who refuse to compromise.

The Psalms of David, repeated daily in Jewish prayer, foresee a day when “God will give the Jewish people strength.” Only then will the Jewish people achieve peace. Israelis understand that peace will only come through strength. Trump reflects that strength, and his support for Israel will strengthen the peace camp.

So all Americans – those who voted for and those who voted against Trump – should unite in favor of strong support for Israel by the Trump administration. That is the best hope for peace.

The major beneficiaries of peace in the Middle East will be the Palestinians on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and the residents of Lebanon. These groups have been victimized by the terrorists who control them and use them as human shields against Israel’s necessary responses to terrorism. Israelis too will benefit, as their soldiers come home from reserve duty and as residents of the north can move back into their homes. Other beneficiaries include the Arab states in the region who will feel freer to expand technologies and economic partnerships with Israel.

The only people who profit from the current turmoil are the Iranian mullahs and their terrorist surrogates. These extremists do not want peace. They do not want a Palestinian state living alongside Israel. They want terrorism and turmoil. Their ultimate goal is the end of Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people and the ethnic cleansing of Israel’s Jewish population. They don’t care how many lives – Arab, Muslims, Jews or others – are lost in this effort to achieve their religious dystopia. The Iranian mullahs and their Revolutionary Guard want to control the entire Middle East by intimidation, force and threats. They are the new Nazis, at least in their ideology and goal. The only real barriers are a strong Israel, a strong America, and a strong alliance between these two good democracies.

The Trump administration will also be more aggressive in combating antisemitism and anti-Zionism around the world. In his first term, President Trump added antisemitism to the list of bigotries that universities must combat. His representative to the United Nations will stand tall against the pervasive anti-Zionism that pervades the United Nations from the top down. President Trump himself will use his bully pulpit to condemn the rancid Jew hatred that has plagued university campuses since October 7^th.

All in all the Trump administration holds out great promise. During his first term there was less violence and more cooperation. The Abraham Accords were a significant accomplishment. The massacres of Oct 7, 2023 were an attempt to disrupt progress toward even more cooperation. Let us hope that this progress will resume, even accelerate, under the second Trump presidency.